It’s likely not a bubble. Earnings are high, prices anticipate future high earnings growth, and the historical record shows that growth rate is achievable. (It may not be the fifth time, but close.)
You do not touch at all on the quality of Earnings and Estimated Earnings. It can strongly be argued that earnings quality has rarely been worse than now. For example, Big Tech has been extending depreciation cycles past assets economic life. See the aggressive use of capitalizing CAPEX into Construction In Progress on the balance sheet. They are capitalizing chip purchases into CIP and postponing depreciating the chips for 2 years. Off balance sheet debt is exploding. Compare Big Tech FCF growth relative to sales and earnings growth. Cash on the balance sheet continues to erode. One cannot just look at earnings in isolation as earnings are of various quality.
Forward EPS catching up to price action makes the bubble call harder this cycle. Multiple compression risk feels back loaded if earnings actually deliver into 2026.
You do not touch at all on the quality of Earnings and Estimated Earnings. It can strongly be argued that earnings quality has rarely been worse than now. For example, Big Tech has been extending depreciation cycles past assets economic life. See the aggressive use of capitalizing CAPEX into Construction In Progress on the balance sheet. They are capitalizing chip purchases into CIP and postponing depreciating the chips for 2 years. Off balance sheet debt is exploding. Compare Big Tech FCF growth relative to sales and earnings growth. Cash on the balance sheet continues to erode. One cannot just look at earnings in isolation as earnings are of various quality.
Bubbles end on flow, not valuation. Passive inflows are the actual top tell.
Forward EPS catching up to price action makes the bubble call harder this cycle. Multiple compression risk feels back loaded if earnings actually deliver into 2026.
Thank you for sharing